Projections for delta wave COVID-19 surge in Florida

August 5, 2021: UF biostatisticians estimate what the delta variant-driven surge in COVID-19 infections may look like in Florida in the coming months.

Note: the following graphs were updated on August 14, 2021 to show both projected cases per day (first graph) and projected cases per week (second graph).

The EPI has also published a report for the public that discusses how these graphs were calculated.

graph showing delta variant projected cases per day Florida surge 2021

The graph above shows the projected cases of COVID-19 that are expected to be reported per day given the surge in Florida due to the delta variant through the end of 2021. The current surge reflects the increased infectiousness of the delta variant, and the reduced vaccine efficacy against this variant. The black line shows past actual reported COVID-19 cases, and the yellow line shows the projected reported cases per day. The projections assume that vaccinations continue at the same pace and that no further interventions are introduced to mitigate the virus' spread, such as increased social distancing or wearing face masks. 

graph showing delta variant projected cases per week Florida surge 2021

The graph above shows the projected cases of COVID-19 that are expected to be reported per week given the surge in Florida due to the delta variant through the end of 2021. The current surge reflects the increased infectiousness of the delta variant, and the reduced vaccine efficacy against this variant. The black line shows past actual reported COVID-19 cases, and the yellow line shows the projected reported cases per week. The projections assume that vaccinations continue at the same pace and that no further interventions are introduced to mitigate the virus' spread, such as increased social distancing or wearing face masks. 


Figures and associated reported created by Thomas Hladish, research scientist in the Department of Biology at UF; Alexander Pillai, research assistant in the Department of Biology at UF; Kok Ben Toh, postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Preventative Medicine at Northwestern University; and Ira Longini, Jr., professor in the Department of Biostatistics at UF.